The Null World Generator
Build a p-value from scratch by simulating the null world.
Dr. Floe
“I've logged 30 expeditions. Help me figure out if 20 sightings is truly surprising — or just natural variation.”
Scenario
The Arctic Research Station claims polar bears appear on no more than 50% of survey trips. On 30 recent expeditions, Dr. Floe spotted bears on 20 of them. Is this unusual?
1
Enter the Null WorldYou must assume the station's claim is true before computing a p-value. This is the entire premise.